If you're a real estate professional in Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta, good news! These cities posted the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter — among 36 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 500,000 single family homes and condos, according to ATTOM Data Solutions' Q2 2018 Pre-Mover Housing Index.
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover" indicator to total single-family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market.
Among a broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single family homes and condos, those posting the highest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Wilmington, North Carolina (206); Colorado Springs, Colorado (178); and Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire (172); followed by Chicago (168) and Washington, D.C. (166).
“A higher pre-mover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Meanwhile markets with a low pre-mover index likely have a scarcity of inventory available to buy or relatively weak demand from prospective buyers — or some combination of both — which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect.”
Pre-Mover Heat Map by Metro Area
Among the 36 metros with at least 500,000 single family homes and condos, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Cleveland, Ohio (38); Boston, Massachusetts (39); Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (48); Detroit, Michigan (48); and San Francisco, California (49).
Among the broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single family homes and condos, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Providence, Rhode Island (31); Albany, New York (35); San Jose, California (37); Buffalo, New York (38); and Cleveland, Ohio (38).
States with the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter — were North Dakota (275), Illinois (193), Nevada (164), Virginia (163), and Colorado (147).
Other states with a pre-mover index among the 10 highest in Q2 2018 were New Jersey (133), Florida (133), Delaware (130), Maryland (127), and Utah (124).
Among 394 counties analyzed in the report, those with the highest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Kendall County, Illinois, in the Chicago metro area (461); Albemarle County, Virginia, in the Charlottesville metro area (337); followed by three Virginia counties all in the Washington, D.C. metro area: Loudon County (319), Alexandria City (307); and Spotsylvania County (294).
Among the same 394 counties, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were San Francisco County, California (31); Queens County, New York (33); Westchester County, New York (36); Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania in the Pittsburgh metro area (39); and Cameron County, Texas in the Brownsville-Harlingen metro area (42).
Nationwide 4.6 percent of all single family homes and condos with a pre-mover indicator in Q2 2018 were being purchased as an investment property.
Among the 131 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, the highest share of pre-mover investment homes were in Memphis, Tennessee (21.3 percent); Indianapolis, Indiana (10.9 percent); Knoxville, Tennessee (10.1 percent); Dayton, Ohio (9.4 percent); and Fort Collins-Loveland, Colorado (9.3 percent).
Nationwide 3.2 percent of all single family homes and condos with a pre-mover indicator in Q2 2018 were being purchased as a second home.
Among the 131 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, the highest share of pre-mover second homes were in Ocean City, New Jersey (34.6 percent); Naples-Marco Island, Florida (31.3 percent); Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (25.2 percent); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida (20.9 percent); and Wilmington, North Carolina (15.7 percent).
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