HIGHEST SHARE OF HOMEOWNERS LIKELY TO MOVE IN Q3 2018 IN CHICAGO, DC, ORLANDO, TAMPA, ATLANTA
If you’re a real estate professional in Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta, good news! These cities posted the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter — among 36 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 500,000 single family homes and condos, according to ATTOM Data Solutions’ Q2 2018 Pre-Mover Housing Index.
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” indicator to total single-family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market.
Among a broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single family homes and condos, those posting the highest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Wilmington, North Carolina (206); Colorado Springs, Colorado (178); and Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire (172); followed by Chicago (168) and Washington, D.C. (166).
“A higher pre-mover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Meanwhile markets with a low pre-mover index likely have a scarcity of inventory available to buy or relatively weak demand from prospective buyers — or some combination of both — which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect.”
Pre-Mover Heat Map by Metro Area
Cleveland, Boston, Pittsburgh post lowest pre-mover indexes among major metros
Among the 36 metros with at least 500,000 single family homes and condos, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Cleveland, Ohio (38); Boston, Massachusetts (39); Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (48); Detroit, Michigan (48); and San Francisco, California (49).
Among the broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single family homes and condos, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Providence, Rhode Island (31); Albany, New York (35); San Jose, California (37); Buffalo, New York (38); and Cleveland, Ohio (38).
North Dakota, Illinois, Nevada post highest pre-mover indexes among states
States with the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter — were North Dakota (275), Illinois (193), Nevada (164), Virginia (163), and Colorado (147).
Other states with a pre-mover index among the 10 highest in Q2 2018 were New Jersey (133), Florida (133), Delaware (130), Maryland (127), and Utah (124).
Chicago and DC counties post highest county pre-mover indexes
Among 394 counties analyzed in the report, those with the highest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Kendall County, Illinois, in the Chicago metro area (461); Albemarle County, Virginia, in the Charlottesville metro area (337); followed by three Virginia counties all in the Washington, D.C. metro area: Loudon County (319), Alexandria City (307); and Spotsylvania County (294).
San Francisco and New York City counties post lowest county pre-mover indexes
Among the same 394 counties, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were San Francisco County, California (31); Queens County, New York (33); Westchester County, New York (36); Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania in the Pittsburgh metro area (39); and Cameron County, Texas in the Brownsville-Harlingen metro area (42).
Highest share of investment property pre-movers in Memphis, Indianapolis, Knoxville
Nationwide 4.6 percent of all single family homes and condos with a pre-mover indicator in Q2 2018 were being purchased as an investment property.
Among the 131 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, the highest share of pre-mover investment homes were in Memphis, Tennessee (21.3 percent); Indianapolis, Indiana (10.9 percent); Knoxville, Tennessee (10.1 percent); Dayton, Ohio (9.4 percent); and Fort Collins-Loveland, Colorado (9.3 percent).
Highest share of second home pre-movers in Ocean City, Naples, Myrtle Beach
Nationwide 3.2 percent of all single family homes and condos with a pre-mover indicator in Q2 2018 were being purchased as a second home.
Among the 131 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, the highest share of pre-mover second homes were in Ocean City, New Jersey (34.6 percent); Naples-Marco Island, Florida (31.3 percent); Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (25.2 percent); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida (20.9 percent); and Wilmington, North Carolina (15.7 percent).
