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Housing inventory projected to increase in these markets, says study

The report suggests that families with children in grades K-12 will increase their market presence to 22.5% of all homes sold.

Gainesville, Ga., led communities with 100,000 to 250,000 in population with nearly 15,000 projected listings. Port St. Lucie, Fla. (23,800), Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. (44,850), North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. (40,141), Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn. (82,050), Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz. (136,394) and New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. (280,999) followed in leading specific population breakouts.

TKI, a software development company unveiled its quarterly nSkope Predictive Analytics Report that identifies more than 7.3 million homes in 364 studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that are most likely to come on the market through June 2023.

The report suggests that families with children in grades K-12 will increase their market presence to 22.5% of all homes sold.

The report broke down each MSA by size and found that of those markets with a population of less than 100,000, Rome, Ga., had the most predicted listings expected to come on the market by June 2023 with 4,323 properties.

Along with predicting future listings, TKI also reviewed nSkope data to determine which MSAs had the highest success rate based on reviewing June 2021 predictions. Jackson, Mich., had 1,021 of the 5,879 predicted addresses come on the market over between June 2021-June 2022, a nation-leading 17.37% conversion rate. Jacksonville, N.C., New Orleans-Metairie, La., and Kalamazoo-Portage, Mich., also were above 15% success rates.

Of the nation’s most-populated MSAs, nSkope saw 7.89% of its predicted homes in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz., come on the market through June 2021-June 2022. The Chicago and Atlanta markets followed in success rates.

Overall, nSkope examined the nation’s approximately 128 million homes and predicted about seven million would come on the market between June 2021-June 2022. Its average national success rate was 8.2%.

nSkope attaches a variety of personas to each projected listing, helping real estate professionals understand “who” the potential sellers are. The Predictive Analytics Report found that families with school-aged children will likely generate 22.6% of listings through June 2023. This was up from a 21.5% predicted for a 12-month span beginning in March. Retirees and mature households are expected to also increase their presence.

ProfileProfile DefinitionQ2 2022
% of All Predicted Sales
Q1 2002 % of All Predicted Sales
School-aged FamilyA household representing a family with children in grades K-12.22.5%21.5%
FamiliesA household with at least one child 18-or-older defined as living at home14.6%16.7%
Mature HouseholdsConsists of empty nesters or adults with no children that are not yet at retirement age.10.8%10.3%
SinglesA household that has one adult and no children reported.9.6%10.0%
RetireesA household with homeowners that are within retirement age.7.8%6.9%

In reviewing data collected between June 2021-June 2022, nSkope successfully predicted 7.67% of those households that were identified as families with children in grades K-12.

Below follows a list of those markets with most homes predicted to come on the market through June 2023 in eight different population sizes:

Markets Under 100,000 PopulationPredicted Listings Through June 2023
Rome, Ga.4,323
Corvallis, Oregon4,027
Midland, Mich.3,998
Columbus, Ind.3,879
Kokomo, Ind.3,395
Cape Girardeau, Mo.-Ill.2,869
Victoria, Texas2,792
Casper, Wyo.2,669
Elmira, N.Y.2,651
Grants Pass, Ore.2,541
Markets 100,000-250,000 PopulationPredicted Listings Through June 2023
Gainesville, Ga.14,911
Appleton, Wis.14,050
Iowa City, Iowa11,285
Punta Gorda, Fla.11,272
Barnstable Town, Mass.10,372
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, Ala.10,248
Charlottesville, Va.9,704
Oshkosh-Neenah, Wis.8,826
Rochester, Minn.8,808
Bend, Ore.8,499
Markets 250,000-500,000 PopulationPredicted Listings Through June 2023
Port St. Lucie, Fla.23,800
Greeley, Colo.22,522
Fort Collins, Colo.20,395
Naples-Marco Island, Fla.20,041
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.19,061
Reno, Nev.17,956
York-Hanover, Pa.17,448
Fort Wayne, Ind.17,037
Boulder, Colo.16,591
Springfield, Mo.15,594
Markets 500,000-750,000 PopulationPredicted Listings Through June 2023
Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.44,850
Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa34,677
Akron, Ohio24,866
Provo-Orem, Utah24,726
Fayetteville, N.C.24,490
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.23,979
Port St. Lucie, Fla.23,800
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.23,495
Winston-Salem, N.C.23,404
Madison, Wis.22,760
Markets 750,000-1 Million PopulationPredicted Listings Through June 2023
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fa.40,141
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.35,609
Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa34,113
Colorado Springs, Colo.32,345
Greenville-Anderson, S.C.30,573
Columbia, S.C.29,307
Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.28,193
Worcester, Mass.-Conn.27,969
Knoxville, Tenn.27,020
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-NJ.26,980
Markets 1-2 Million PopulationPredicted Listings Through June 2023
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.82,050
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.66,952
Jacksonville, Fla.64,055
Richmond, Va.46,963
Oklahoma City, Okla.42,448
Salt Lake City, Utah38,769
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.38,738
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.37,593
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.36,282
Milwaukee-Waukesha, Wis.33,408
Markets 2-4 Million PopulationPredicted Listings Through June 2023
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.136,394
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.117,457
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.114,061
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.107,895
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.100,250
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.96,938
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.93,578
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.93,354
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.89,535
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.82,928
Markets Under Above 4 Million PopulationPredicted Listings Through June 2023
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.280,999
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas235,338
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wisc.225,742
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.214,522
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W.Va.213,012
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.208,133
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas202,488
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.150,759
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.96,356

Methodology: More than 128 million households were included in a July 1, 2022 report that utilized more than 300 data points to discover approximately 7million homes are likely to be listed over the next 6- 12 months.