Analyst Logan Mohtashami’s 2023 housing market outlook

Today’s RealTrending features HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami. Logan digs into the housing market data on pricing, days on market, inventory and demographics to give real estate professionals a real-time look at what’s happening today and how that will play out in the market in 2023.

Here is a small preview of today’s interview with Logan. The transcript below has been lightly edited for length and clarity:

Tracey Velt: Is this going to get worse before it gets better? What’s your outlook for 2023? 

Logan Mohtashami: Until mortgage rates fall, you’re not going to see a material change in housing. But mortgage rates getting to 5% will actually stabilize the market, that’s what we saw in the data. The growth rate of inflation is falling if it continues to fall, the Fed pivots and the bond market smells this recession. 

Housing disproportionately benefits from lower rates. Why? Because majority of people are always working even in a job loss recession. During COVID, when 20 to 30 million people were unemployed, and people thought, “What are you talking about housing recovery? There’s 20 to 30 million people unemployed.” I said, “Okay, I’ve got 133 million people still working, and mortgage rates just went down.

RealTrending features the brightest minds in real estate. Twice a month, brokerage leaders, top agents, team leaders, and industry experts share their success secrets, trends, and lessons learned navigating this ever-changing industry. Hosted by Tracey Velt and produced by Elissa Branch.