2021 RealTrends 500 Now Live!

The RealTrends 500, now in its 34th year, remains the undisputed leading report ranking the performance of the top residential real estate brokerage firms.

Gathering of Eagles

The Gathering of Eagles conference is the Trusted Source, offering brokers, managers and leaders valuable insider industry information on how to run a profitable business.

RealTrending: eXp’s Glenn Sanford

Glenn Sanford, CEO of eXp World holdings, addresses his critics about his agent referral program, where he is taking the company next and growth limiters for the brokerage.

Newsletter

The RealTrends monthly newsletter is known as the trusted industry source for information on trends, strategies, analysis, people and news shaping the real estate industry of tomorrow.

CoreLogic Releases Most Recent HPI Forecast

CoreLogic Releases Most Recent HPI Forecast

CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, released its latest CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report that compares its 12-month CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Forecast to the actual CoreLogic Home Price Index. The report compares the changes in national and key Core-Based Statistical Area-level (CBSA) forecasts made in November 2017 to the actual HPI index, which includes data through November 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state.

The report showed:

• The national forecast prediction of a 4.7 percent increase was within 0.1 percent of the 4.8 percent increase of the HPI for the 12-month period ending in November 2018.

• The most accurate CBSA-level forecast was for the Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA area, which at 5.5 percent came on target of the actual HPI increase of 5.5 percent.

• The widest CBSA gap was in San Diego, CA with a 6.4 percent over-estimation of actual increase (10.4 percent forecasted vs. 4.0 percent actual). CoreLogic noted that the variance in this under-valued CBSA was due to a downturn of overall demand, combined with a concern over long-term affordability.

• Among the 10 most accurately forecasted major MSAs, nine areas had forecasts with less than a 1 percent difference from actual values.

• Severe inventory shortages and rising interest rates impacted the forecasts of several MSAs, reflecting the overall market volatility of the past 12 months.

“The latest HPI Forecast Validation report continues to demonstrate why CoreLogic is the gold standard when it comes to home price forecasting,” said Ann Regan, executive, product management for CoreLogic. “Despite an extremely volatile market, our forecasts were still able to provide terrific insight into the overall housing economy, providing HPI clients with the reliability they need in the current market.”

Ranking Market Population HPI Actual Change Forecasted Change Difference
1 Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA 4.732 million 5.5% 5.5% 0.0%
2 St. Louis, MO-IL 2.797 million 3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
3 Pittsburgh, PA 2.360 million 4.6% 4.3% -0.3%
4 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 2.389 million 4.7% 5.0% 0.3%
5 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 3.867 million 5.7% 5.3% -0.4%
6 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 1.718 million 2.6% 3.4% 0.8%
7 Jacksonville, FL 1.631 million 6.1% 5.2% -0.9%
8 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 13.131 million 5.2% 6.1% 0.9%
9 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2.850 million 6.3% 5.4% -0.9%
10 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 2.131 million 5.4% 4.4% -1.0%
Source: CoreLogic November 2018

Most Popular Articles

Is Biden’s downpayment plan pouring gasoline on a fire?

The last time the federal government stepped in to help homeownership, we ended up with a housing crash. Is the Downpayment Toward Equity Act of 2021 the right legislation for today’s market?

Apr 20, 2021 By

Latest Articles

What’s the deal with The Real Brokerage Inc.?

Described by some as the silent lion in the corner of the room, Real Brokerage is starting to get some buzz from agents who want a chance to be in on the ground floor of a growing company.

Apr 22, 2021 By