{"id":3617,"date":"2022-10-28T15:47:45","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T15:47:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/10\/28\/opinion-key-signals-to-watch-in-a-volatile-real-estate-market\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:47:49","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:47:49","slug":"opinion-key-signals-to-watch-in-a-volatile-real-estate-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/10\/28\/opinion-key-signals-to-watch-in-a-volatile-real-estate-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Key signals to watch in a volatile real estate market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In May, I wrote about the signs to watch for a real estate market slowdown<\/a>. It\u2019s now October, we\u2019ve had the biggest spike in mortgage rates we\u2019ve seen in decades, and all the signs of a slowdown are here: Inventory is rising. The price of new listings is dropping. More homes are taking price reductions. And, there are fewer immediate sales.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"altos-price-reductions-102022\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Of course, some of what we\u2019re seeing is exacerbated by seasonality \u2014 prices normally retreat in the fall, and there\u2019s much less activity over the winter. But it\u2019s clear that the dramatic shift in the market is about more than just seasonal fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big question is: how long will the market contraction last and when should we expect things to heat back up?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s look at what the data can tell us:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Home buyers got spooked when mortgage rates passed 5.5%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Homebuyers are understandably very sensitive to mortgage interest rates. In April, May and June, when rates spiked dramatically from 3% to 6%, we saw inventory rise as buyers pulled back. Rates peaked in late June and then fell back down to around 5% in July and August. At this point, buyers actually perked up a bit and got more active. We could measure this change because inventory stopped rising nationally during those months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As soon as rates spiked<\/a> above 5.5% in September to 6.5% or even 7%, buyers once again stopped abruptly. Inventory and price reductions have resumed climbing now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key takeaway: <\/strong>when imagining the possible outcomes for the 2023 market, it looks like that 5.5% threshold may be very important. We could see demand return the next time mortgage rates drop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. There\u2019s a chance for more pronounced inventory growth.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve been expecting inventory to grow through the middle of October, but if buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, then inventory could continue to grow into late October or even November, which would be very unusual. The holidays usually see far fewer sellers \u2014 most sellers wait until January to list their homes. But there are always some sellers (for a variety of reasons) that list and sell in November or December. Those reasons don\u2019t stop, so inventory could continue to build.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key takeaway:<\/strong> If inventory grows late in October or into November, then a bearish signal will be lit for home prices in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"altos-national-inventory-102022\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

3. We still have a significant shortage of homes available.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that we may see unseasonal inventory trends<\/a> in the coming months, I now anticipate that we’ll end the year at around 490,000 homes for sale. This figure is ahead of last year\u2019s home inventory levels \u2014 and slightly more than we had in 2020 \u2014 but it is still near record lows. And, it is less than half of the \u201cnormal\u201d level of about one million homes on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the moment, most homeowners are locked into lower interest rate mortgages, they have solid equity in their homes and they have jobs \u2014 they don\u2019t have to sell. It could take several years of higher interest rates to get us back to the previous \u201cnormal\u201d levels of active inventory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key takeaway: <\/strong>There\u2019s no tsunami of listings coming to the market. While home prices are dropping in many areas, this restricted inventory may help prevent a crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Some markets are hurting more than others.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there was still solid demand for good properties up until August, we saw some markets struggling as early as May. In particular, markets that overheated during the COVID-19 pandemic are seeing a big correction now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take Boise, Idaho for example.  Days on market has risen from 20 days to 60 days over the past year. Price reductions are way up at 63% of the market, and the median price has dropped 20% from its peak in May. Other markets seeing a similar pattern include Austin, Texas, Phoenix and Salt Lake City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, markets that didn\u2019t have nearly as much of a boom in the past two years, like some of the New York City suburbs, are seeing a much more modest slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Boise-NY-price-reductions-102022\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Key takeaway: <\/strong>It remains to be seen whether markets like Boise, Idaho are the canary in the coal mine, or if some markets will weather the storm fairly well, even in the face of significantly higher mortgage rates. We\u2019ll be watching our data closely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was originally published on HousingWire.com<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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