{"id":2459,"date":"2021-08-25T16:58:50","date_gmt":"2021-08-25T16:58:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/25\/home-sales-beat-estimates-no-housing-crash-in-sight\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:38:59","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:38:59","slug":"home-sales-beat-estimates-no-housing-crash-in-sight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/25\/home-sales-beat-estimates-no-housing-crash-in-sight\/","title":{"rendered":"Home sales beat estimates: no housing crash in sight"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/HW-home-on-street.jpg\" alt=\"HW+ home on street\" class=\"wp-image-318346\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>National Association of Realtors<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/existing-home-sales-climb-2-0-in-july\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reported 5.99 million<\/a> home sales for July, which was an excellent beat of estimates and a dagger into the hearts of the 2021 housing crash crew. Mother demographics and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/mortgage-rates-center\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">low mortgage rates<\/a>, two things that have been transparent to human beings for a long time, are powerful economic forces. Both together make it very difficult for an epic housing crash in sales to happen, especially when the years 2008-2019 had the weakest housing recovery ever. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We were never working from an elevated level of sales in the existing home sales market as we ended 2020 with just <strong>5,640,000<\/strong>, which was only 130,000 more than 2017 levels. The notion that sales would simply collapse by 2-3 million levels like what we saw from the peak of the housing bubble year at<strong> 7,260,000 <\/strong>to as low as a bit under 4 million is entering internet conspiracy levels. As I showed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/this-is-not-2008-all-over-again-for-the-housing-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here,<\/a> the market we have currently isn\u2019t 2008 all over again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I suggest after 10 years of being wrong on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/housing-market-midyear-update-brian-buffini\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">housing crash<\/a> call and now needing a 86% home price crash to just get back to 2012 levels, my best advice is to get some therapy for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/the-housing-bubble-boys-blew-it-in-2020\/\">Housing Bubble Boy<\/a> 2.0 sickness. You still have time, life is worth living free from this disease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The sales data trend, which I have always believed is the best way to look at demand using the purchase application data as a reference, has been in line with what I <a href=\"https:\/\/loganmohtashami.com\/2021\/03\/31\/pending-home-sales-look-just-right\/\">talked about back in March<\/a> of this year. As I wrote then, the rule of thumb I am using for 2021 is that existing home sales, if they\u2019re doing good, should be trending between 5,840,000-6,200,000. This, to me, would be considered a good year for housing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, I had anticipated some existing home sales prints under 5,840,000 this year, and so far, we have only gotten one of those.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far, 2021 looks about right. if we don\u2019t see some prints below 5,840,000, I would consider it slightly better than my estimates. Remember that COVID-19 has created many distortions in economic data. Since the end of last year, my theme is that housing is going to moderate, but don\u2019t over-read that moderation in the data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are trying to find a base to work from that is more traditional with standard housing data. We are getting there, and then we can go back to normal. I am not, nor will I ever be, a housing sales or construction boom person. However, I am a big believer in demographic replacement buyer demand. If total home sales (new + existing) are over <strong>6.2 million<\/strong> each year from 2020 through 2024, I would consider that a beat. (This article is continued on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/home-sales-beat-estimates-no-housing-crash-in-sight\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Housingwire.com<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article was originally published by HousingWire. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/home-sales-beat-estimates-no-housing-crash-in-sight\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">full article is available on HousingWire.com<\/a>\u00a0for HW+ Members.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NAR&#8217;s existing home sales data beat estimates in July, demonstrating once again that there is no housing crash coming, despite what social media says. HW+ Premium Content<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[1680],"class_list":["post-2459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Home sales beat estimates: no housing crash in sight - RealTrends - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"NAR&#039;s existing home sales data beat estimates in July, demonstrating once again that there is no housing crash coming, despite what social media says.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/25\/home-sales-beat-estimates-no-housing-crash-in-sight\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Home sales beat estimates: no housing crash in sight\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"NAR&#039;s existing home sales data beat estimates in July, demonstrating once again that there is no housing crash coming, despite what social media says.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/25\/home-sales-beat-estimates-no-housing-crash-in-sight\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RealTrends - 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