{"id":244,"date":"2020-09-03T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-09-03T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/2020\/09\/03\/covid-19-civil-unrest-the-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:00:41","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:00:41","slug":"covid-19-civil-unrest-the-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realtrends.com\/blog\/2020\/09\/03\/covid-19-civil-unrest-the-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19, CIVIL UNREST &#038; THE ECONOMY"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 13.0pt; color: #6d6e71;\">COVID-19, work-from-home mandates and civil unrest have created a perfect storm for our nation\u2019s major urban areas.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">A near total shutdown of economies due to COVID-19 has choked the vitality that has made urban areas so popular. Jobs and income have been lost due to the closing of thousands of stores and restaurants\u2014some never to reopen. Let\u2019s not forget that tax revenues are declining. These revenues provide the services that citizens depend on in these cities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">The shift to work-from-home, which will likely become a more permanent part of the workforce, separates the <\/span><em><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">where I work<\/span><\/em><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\"> from the <\/span><em><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">where I live.<\/span><\/em><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\"> What percentage of the workforce will have this option is unknown. Regardless, how many families will give up the action and vitality of living and working in a major city for the lower costs and slower pace of suburbs or even ex-urban or rural lifestyles? <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">As if this weren\u2019t enough, in certain urban areas, civil unrest has caused many more to consider relocating to suburban or rural areas. Some families are buying getaway homes, so they have options. Others appear to be decamping permanently, whether it\u2019s due to COVID-19, civil unrest or the high cost of living and taxation. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the wave of those relocating permanently is large enough to be called a significant demographic event. Time will tell.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: #a80000;\">Future Views Have Changed Dramatically<\/span><\/h4>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">What occurs to me is that none of this was in the thoughts or future views of Americans just seven months ago. It\u2019s amazing how one event, which triggers other events, can cause such disruption and such a foundational change in how our economy operates. For instance, while Amazon and online shopping services were eating away share from traditional brick-and-mortar retailers, the events of the last seven months have pushed hundreds of mainline retailers into bankruptcy and untold numbers of smaller, privately owned retailers to close, some permanently.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">We have a housing sales boom, fueled by the delay in the normal spring market and record low interest rates, as well as additional demand coming from those who are either buying second homes in the suburbs or countryside, or permanently relocating away from urban core communities. When combining already low inventories of homes for sale with this uber-demand, it creates a market critically short of for-sale inventory in many markets around the country.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: #a80000;\">What\u2019s Next?<\/span><\/h4>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">A question we get asked often is: What\u2019s next? We don\u2019t know; no one does. The <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">economy is slowly adding jobs, but there are large segments of the workforce t<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">hat won\u2019t see any quick recovery, such as travel and tourism, state and local governments, retail and restaurants. The current 8%-10% unemployment rate is a fair distance from the 3%-4% the country had in February 2020. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">How will this affect housing sales this fall and into next year? Certainly, anyone paying attention knows that the elections this fall\u2014no matter the outcome\u2014will cause more unrest. The pandemic will also continue to restrain our country\u2019s economic recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">The homeownership rate rose to the highest rate since 2004 in July and was at or near record highs for virtually every demographic group. How much room does it have to run? The peak in 2004 was over 69%. We are halfway between the 30-year average rate of about 64.5% and that level\u2014which preceded the housing crash of 2006-2010. There are <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">substantial differences between the circumstances of that homeownership peak and today\u2019s circumstances. <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">Thankfully, most of today\u2019s reasons should discount another crash. Yet, it\u2019s disconcerting to think that with the level of unemployment in the country today, how in the world did we get the highest homeownership rate in 16 years? I trust some very smart people are watching carefully. The recent fee increase proposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, while evidently only on refinanced mortgages, <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">may be caused by policy makers to cool things down a bit. That\u2019s not what they say it\u2019s for, but one wonders.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">When we talk with our clients, we suggest that, since there are so few answers to these questions, the most important thing they can do is focus on building stronger relationships with family, friends, clients and customers. Preserve cash and liquidity, because we know from past downturns (We\u2019ve had a front-row seat for four of them) that great growth opportunities are just over the horizon<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10.0pt; color: black;\">. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>COVID-19, work-from-home mandates and civil unrest have created a perfect storm for our nation\u2019s major urban areas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15802,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>COVID-19, CIVIL UNREST &amp; 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