What We Can Learn from Housing Reports and Migration Studies

What We Can Learn from Housing Reports and Migration Studies

Americans continue to move for career advancement, retirement and myriad other reasons, reflected by the housing market in areas of the country drawing new residents.

The housing boom may have subsided, but don’t tell residents of San Jose, Calif. There, buyers and sellers are gearing up for the hottest housing market in 2019, according to Zillow®. It will be the second year in a row that Silicon Valley earns that distinction, but the winds are gradually shifting everywhere you look.

An analysis of the market by price tier and by metro areas led the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) to call the housing market “more bifurcated,” and suggest that “rumors of the end of Housing Boom 2.0 may well be exaggerated.”

AEI’s national housing market indicator showed buyers shunning larger cities, particularly those that have experienced recent housing price appreciation, and moving to smaller or medium-sized areas. (For those committed to life in the big city, there's the choice between downtown and the rest of the metro, which was the subject of a Property Shark study.)

This conclusion is supported by Zillow, as well as migration reports from moving companies United Van Lines and North American Van Lines. Zillow says the South is drawing new residents seeking affordability and jobs in some up-and-coming tech markets.

"When it comes to the country's hottest housing markets, long-time leaders are hard to displace, but a number of up-and-comers are nipping at their heels,” said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas. “Silicon Valley's white-hot jobs market has propelled the region's housing market – which we expect to continue into the early months of 2019 – but there are some signs that the trend is away from the West Coast and toward the South and Southeast."

"Affordability is attractive – for both young professionals and booming businesses, earning markets like Orlando, Minneapolis, Dallas and Nashville top billing in 2019."

Five of the hottest markets are in the South, where housing is more affordable, drawing in new residents. Median home values in Jacksonville, for example, are one-sixth what they are in San Jose, and rents are about one-third the price. Orlando had the biggest population increase of the hottest housing markets, up 2.8 percent.

Zillow's Top 10 Housing Markets for 2019

1. San Jose, Calif.
2. Orlando, Fl.
3. Denver, Colo.
4. Atlanta, Ga.
5. Minneapolis, Minn.
6. San Francisco, Calif.
7. Dallas, Texas
8. Nashville, Tenn.
9. Jacksonville, Fl.
10. San Diego, Calif.

And yet, both moving companies noted that Idaho was quickly receiving an influx of new residents.

North American Van Lines' report culled the most recent Census data, which show Idaho is currently the nation's fastest-growing state, with its population increasing 2.2 percent between July 2016 and July 2017. In 2018, Idaho is No. 1 for inbound moves. North American's report noted that Idaho is one of the least tax burden states, which may be a contributing factor, while United Van Lines research found the Gem State led the Mountain West as a destination for people seeking a lifestyle change.