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High-Risk Cities See Home Appreciation Increase

Sep 20, 2018 12:37:18 PM

HOME PRICE APPRECIATION IN HIGHEST-RISK NATURAL HAZARD CITIES 1.7 TIMES THE OVERALL MARKET RATE OVER LAST DECADE

But Highest-Risk Cities for Floods, Hurricanes and Wildfires Underperformed Overall Market; Foreclosure and Negative Equity Rates Above-Market Average in Highest-Risk Flood Cities

ATTOM Data Solutions, released its 2018 U.S. Natural Hazard Housing Risk Index, which found that median home prices in cities with the top 80th percentile for natural hazard housing risk have appreciated 40 percent on average over the last 10 years — 1.7 times the 24 percent home price appreciation in the overall U.S. housing market during the same time period.

For the report ATTOM indexed natural hazard risk in more than 3,000 counties and more than 22,000 U.S. cities based on the risk of six natural disasters: earthquakes, floods, hail, hurricane storm surge, tornadoes, and wildfires. ATTOM also analyzed housing trends in 2,616 cities and 440 counties — containing more than 53 million single family homes and condos — broken into five equal quintiles of natural hazard housing risk (see full methodology below).

 

“While combined natural disaster risk has not seemed to hobble home price appreciation over the past decade, the story is much different for some individual hazard risks — namely flood, hurricane storm surge and wildfire risk,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Home price appreciation in the overall U.S. housing market was double the rate of appreciation in cities with the highest flood risk and triple the rate of appreciation in cities with the highest hurricane storm surge risk over the past 10 years. The broader market has also outperformed appreciation in cities with the highest wildfire risk during the last decade, although the gap is much narrower.”

  Overall Natural Hazard Risk Category
Housing Metric Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Grand Total
Number of Cities 524 522 524 523 523 2616
Single Family Homes & Condos 9,185,179 9,434,995 11,107,207 12,524,073 11,039,375 53,290,829
Average Home Value $282,218 $267,380 $260,204 $298,559 $624,357 $346,516
Average Property Age (Years) 45 43 39 36 42 41
Average Property Tax $4,518 $3,705 $3,321 $3,652 $4,959 $4,031
Average Property Tax Rate 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3%
Average Foreclosure Rate 0.65% 0.38% 0.36% 0.29% 0.21% 0.38%
Avg Pct Seriously Underwater (LTV 125+) 10.2% 9.9% 9.8% 7.9% 4.7% 8.5%
Average Homeownership Tenure 8.19 7.63 7.60 7.66 9.23 8.06
Average 2018 Median Sales Price $244,079 $232,812 $231,432 $267,133 $582,876 $311,640
Average Premium/Discount to Market Value -3.7% -3.7% -3.0% 0.3% 1.0% -1.8%
Average of 1-Year HPA 6% 7% 7% 6% 9% 7%
Average of 5-Year HPA 29% 39% 39% 43% 54% 41%
Average of 10-Year HPA 11% 19% 21% 28% 40% 24%

Foreclosure rates elevated in highest-risk flood cities

Foreclosure rates were lower in cities in the top 80th percentile for natural hazard housing risk, and this was true for all individual natural hazard risk types except for flood risk. In cities in the top 80th percentile for flood risk, active foreclosures represented 0.61 percent of all properties, well above the foreclosure rate of 0.38 percent across all risk categories.

“Weather is the largest external swing factor in U.S. economics and accounts for over $550 billion per year in lost revenue and up to 76,000 lost jobs,” said Mark Gibbas, president and CEO at WeatherSource, a technology company that provides global weather and climate data along with advanced analytics. “Weather can have an enormous impact on homeowners and the housing market.  When big weather events such as hurricanes, tornados and hail hit, many homeowners suffer financial hardship from various sources such as lost wages and losses due to inadequate insurance. And while the impact on homeowners can be severe, hurricanes like Harvey can change the landscape of the housing market region wide, including shifts in the number of available homes and shifts in home values.”

Cities with the highest flood risk also posted seriously underwater rates (loan-to-value ratio of 125 percent or higher) above the overall market average — 8.9 percent of all homes with a mortgage compared to 8.5 percent nationwide. Tornado risk was the only other individual natural hazard risk factor with seriously underwater rates above the market average in the highest risk cities — 10.0 percent of all homes with a mortgage.

 

  Flood Risk Category
Housing Metric Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Grand Total
Number of Cities 1706 375 412 52 71 2616
Single Family Homes & Condos 33,837,100 7,151,355 8,842,553 1,600,266 1,859,555 53,290,829
Average Home Value $358,556 $298,823 $330,549 $341,473 $405,462 $346,516
Average Property Age (Years) 41 41 42 41 36 41
Average Property Tax $4,190 $3,536 $3,734 $4,040 $4,547 $4,031
Average Property Tax Rate 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3%
Average Foreclosure Rate 0.37% 0.29% 0.41% 0.68% 0.61% 0.38%
Average Pct Seriously Underwater (LTV 125+) 8.2% 9.3% 9.1% 8.8% 8.9% 8.5%
Average Homeownership Tenure 8.13 7.79 8.00 8.37 8.01 8.06
Average  2018 Median Sales Price $323,972 $270,337 $294,599 $293,243 $345,834 $311,640
Average 2018 Premium/Discount to Market Value -1.6% -1.8% -2.6% -2.5% -2.4% -1.8%
Average of 1-Year HPA 7% 7% 7% 8% 6% 7%
Average of 5-Year HPA 40% 40% 42% 52% 49% 41%
Average of 10-Year HPA 26% 22% 19% 18% 12% 24%

 

Buyers paid a premium for homes in highest-risk cities in 2018

The report also shows that homebuyers so far in 2018 paid an average 1.0 percent premium above estimated market value for homes in cities with the highest natural disaster risk while homes in cities with the lowest natural disaster risk sold at an average 3.7 percent discount below estimated market value.

The exception to this trend was in cities with the highest flood risk, where homes sold at an average 2.4 percent discount below estimated market value, cities with the highest tornado risk (2.2 percent discount below estimated market value), and cities with the highest hurricane storm surge risk (1.4 percent discount below estimated market value).

Counties and cities with highest natural hazard risk index

Among the 2,616 cities analyzed in the report with sufficient housing trend data, those with the top 20 highest natural hazard housing risk indexes were all located in the following metropolitan statistical areas: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; San Diego, California; Clearlake, California; San Jose, California; Madera, California; Riverside-San Bernardino, California, Bakersfield, California; Houston, Texas, Santa Cruz, California; and Huntsville, Alabama.

Among the 440 counties analyzed in the report with sufficient housing trend data, those with the highest natural hazard housing risk indexes were Oklahoma County, Oklahoma (Oklahoma City); Monroe County, Florida (Key West); Santa Cruz County, California (Santa Cruz); Santa Clara County, California (San Jose); and Marin County, California (San Francisco).

Among those same 440 counties, those with the lowest natural hazard housing risk indexes were Milwaukee County, Wisconsin (Milwaukee); Muskegon County, Michigan (Muskegon); Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland); Kenosha County, Wisconsin (Chicago metro); and Monroe County, New York (Rochester).

2018 Natural Hazards Housing Risk County Heat Map

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