Ten-X, the nation’s leading online real estate marketplace, today released its Top Single-Family Housing Markets Report for Summer 2016, which ranks the nation’s 50 largest housing markets according to current and forecasted housing fundamentals. Palm Beach County, Orlando, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale and Seattle made up the top five markets, each demonstrating consistently strong demand, home price appreciation, and economic and demographic growth.
In spite of Florida’s exposure to the housing bust, the state’s top metros are enjoying robust recoveries driven by favorable affordability scenarios, subdued permit activity, revitalized local economies, and strong population growth trending well above the national average. On the opposite coast, Seattle continues to represent the tech-driven gains of the Pacific Northwest along with Portland, now ranked as the ninth hottest market.
The new rankings reflect a bit of movement compared to Ten-X’s Spring single-family market rankings, with Palm Beach jumping from 4th place up to 1st, Orlando from 6th to 2nd and Tampa from 11th to 3rd while Fort Lauderdale slipped down from 5th to 4th and Seattle from the top spot down to 5th.
“There are strong regional tendencies in our Summer housing market report, with cities in the Southeast, the Pacific Northwest, and California performing exceptionally well, while the Northeast and Midwest are lagging behind,” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “Cities like Orlando are receiving a boost from low oil prices, which in turn is leading to an increase in travel and tourism. And of all the states that were hit hard during the crash, Florida still has the most room to grow to get back to peak housing prices.”
Summer’s Top Five Markets at a Glance
Market Home Price Growth,Year over Year Home Sales Growth, Year over Year
Palm Beach County, FL 16.8% 4.3%
Orlando, FL 10.4% 5.1%
Tampa, FL 12.1% 4.5%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 8.9% 3.9%
Seattle, WA 15.4% 10.8%
“Despite the muddled economic environment, conditions remain generally supportive for the housing market,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “Home sales had some volatility early in the year, brought on by new regulations and harsh weather, but appear to be stabilizing even with tight inventory levels. More jobs are being added while unemployment continues to drop and low mortgage rates are enticing homebuyers, so solid demand should continue to fuel the housing market.”
Top Market Highlights
Palm Beach County
Palm Beach County’s housing market is scorching. Seasonally adjusted home prices are up 16.8% year-over-year, the highest pace in the country, while quarterly gains have exceeded 3 percent in each of the past seven quarters. Prices are at a cyclical high after eclipsing $260,000 this quarter but still 14 percent below their pre-recession peak, suggesting additional room to run. Employment is also at an all-time high, with jobs up 2.4 percent from a year ago thanks to strong performances in key sectors like financial services, education, healthcare, and leisure & hospitality. As rents continue to rise for local apartments amid accelerating population growth (1.7 percent in 2015), the affordability of single-family homes should continue to fuel demand and the local housing market will continue to prosper.
Orlando’s housing market has recovered at an impressive clip following the housing bust. Seasonally adjusted home prices have increased for 19 consecutive quarters, and despite a mediocre first quarter, prices are up 10.4 percent year-over-year. The metro’s largest sector, leisure and hospitality, grew 5.5 percent from last year and is likewise at a peak level, as persistent low oil prices helped lower airfares and travel expenses, boosting admissions to Walt Disney World and other area attractions. Additionally, the metro’s oversized construction sector has provided a huge boon with jobs soaring 16.3 percent year-over-year, higher than pre-recession peak rates, with new hotels, theme park additions, and retail and entertainment projects underway. Combined with population growth that has exceeded 2 percent for four consecutive years, now more than triple the U.S. pace, Orlando shows no signs of slowing.
Tampa’s economy continues its rapid expansion with 29 consecutive months of job gains, as employment remains 5.4 percent higher than its year-ago level. The professional and business services sector, for one, is up 6 percent from a year ago and a whopping 37 percent above its recessionary trough. Riding the wave, Tampa’s single-family market has seen prices soar since bottoming out in 2011, now up 12.1 percent year-over-year. With home sales up 4.5 percent and strong affordability continuing to support further price growth, the housing market’s favorable affordability scenario over apartments is enabling additional homebuyer demand. Permit issuance has been trending upward, but its modest overall level does not point to overbuilding, and Tampa’s housing market should keep right on thriving.
Fort Lauderdale has mounted a strong recovery from its recessionary fall. Seasonally adjusted home prices are charging ahead, up 8.9 percent year-over-year though they remain 18.5 percent below their prior peak. Payrolls are at an all-time high, posting a 3.9 percent year-over-year gain this past month, with unemployment nearing a cyclical low at 4.5 percent, besting the U.S. rate. Population growth was a mild 1.4 percent, unchanged from last year but still ahead of the U.S. pace. The metro’s favorable economic and demographic climate should continue to support the local housing market, which faces minimal obstacles in its ongoing recovery.
The single-family market in Seattle is still sizzling, with home prices surging 15.4 percent year-over-year and now hitting an all-time high eclipsing $450,000. Home sales are 10.8 percent higher than a year ago as well, posting gains in seven of the last eight quarters. Ever since the end of the recession, Seattle’s economy has proven itself a model of success with metro payrolls up 3.8 percent from a year ago and still climbing. The city’s outsized information sector has been on a tear since mid-2013, as annual job growth accelerated to 7.6 percent this past month. Population growth, in tandem, has topped the U.S. rate for 11 consecutive years, which should bolster demand against low affordability and continue pushing prices ahead.
Market Rankings and Methodology
Sales and pricing activity on the Ten-X platform provide real-time insight into buyer demand and price appetite, particularly among real estate investors. Combining past and current trends with its economic and demographic growth forecasts, Ten-X has ranked the largest 50 metros for performance potential.
The rankings take into account pricing, sales, permit activity and economic growth. Population growth is also considered, but it should be noted that the company utilizes annually compiled Census data. Therefore, any softening in demographics over recent months is not reflected.
Palm Beach County 1
Fort Lauderdale 4
San Diego 6
San Francisco 14
San Jose 18
Orange County 20
Las Vegas 21
Salt Lake City 24
Los Angeles 27
San Antonio 31
Fort Worth 32
Kansas City 34
St. Louis 38
Northern Virginia 39
Northern New Jersey 44
Long Island 45
Suburban Maryland 49
Central New Jersey 50